Service Plays Friday 07/31/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Canadian Bacon: CFL Week 5 preview and picks

Friday, July 31

B.C. Lions (1-3) at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (2-2) +2, 51

Three weeks ago, the Tiger-Cats shocked the CFL followers by winning at B.C. place. Last week, the Lions were crushed 48-10 by Calgary and their owner felt the need to apologize to the fans.

The Tiger-Cats proved to be the toughest opponent the Alouettes faced in the first month of action. Now Hamilton is not only playing host to the Lions, but the club will also feature its new receiver Arland Bruce.

Pick: Hamilton

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL WRITE-UP

Week 5 CFL games

Friday, July 31

BCLions (1-3) @ Hamilton (2-2)-- TiCats went to Vancouver, upset the Lions 31-28 three weeks ago (+13.5), running ball for 155 yards, in game where BC outgained them 437-355. TiCats scored 31-25 in wins, 17-8 in its losses- three of their four games stayed under. Lions got waxed 48-10 at home by Calgary last week- dogs covered three of their four games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL LONG SHEET


Week 5


Friday, July 31

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BRITISH COLUMBIA (1 - 3) at HAMILTON (2 - 2) - 7/31/2009, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) in road games off a division game since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 37-19 ATS (+16.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 3-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-1 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL DUNKEL


FRIDAY, JULY 31

Game 403-404: BC at Hamilton
Dunkel Ratings: BC 110.229; Hamilton 103.238
Dunkel Line: BC by 7; 53
Vegas Line: BC by 2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BC (-2); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA LONG SHEET


Friday, July 31


MINNESOTA (10 - 8) at DETROIT (5 - 9) - 7/31/2009, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 50-75 ATS (-32.5 Units) in July games since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 57-81 ATS (-32.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games against Eastern conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games in July games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 4-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 2-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports
50-26 run on Bonus Plays

FRI Tigers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

INSIDE THE LINES

FRIDAY, JULY 31


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Chicago Cubs (54-46) at Florida (52-49)

Two of the hottest teams in the National League open a three-game set at LandShark Stadium in Miami today as the Cubs send righty Rich Harden (7-6, 4.55 ERA) to the mound opposite Marlins’ right-hander Christopher Volstad (8-9, 4.44).

Chicago comes in having won seven of its last eight with an offense that has put up five runs or more in each of those eight contests. The Cubs took three of four over the Astros with Thursday’s 12-3 victory and outscored Houston 24-3 in the final two games. Chicago is on runs of 6-2 on the road, 5-2 against N.L. East teams and 5-1 on Fridays.

Florida fell 6-3 in 10 innings against the Braves on Thursday, but the Marlins have still won six of their last eight overall. They are riding additional positive streaks of 11-4 at home, 7-2 at home against right-handed starters and 4-1 in series openers, however they are just 3-12 in their last 15 as a home ‘dog and 1-5 in their last sis on Friday.

Chicago has taken four of the last five meetings with the Marlins, but the Fish have won seven of the last nine in Florida.

Harden has been nails for the Cubs lately, going 2-0 in his last three starts with a 0.95 ERA. He’s 4-1 on the road this season with a 2.03 ERA and he’s allowed a total of two earned runs in his last three roadies, covering 20 innings. He got roughed up by the Marlins back on May 1 when he gave up five runs on six hits in 3 2/3 innings, but his offense came back to win the game 8-6. With Harden on the mound, the Cubs are just 1-4 on the road against winning teams, but they are on runs of 4-0 when he’s a road chalk and 5-2 when he faces the N.L. East.

Volstad has been shaky at home for Florida, going 3-6 with a 5.24 ERA. In Los Angeles on Sunday, the Dodgers got him for four runs on eight hits in 5 1/3 innings and his offense pulled out the win, 8-6. He faced these Cubs back on April 30 and allowed two runs on three hits over seven innings of an 8-2 victory. He’s allowed just six earned runs in three starts against Chicago over the last two seasons. Florida is 4-0 when Volstad gets four days of rest, but just 1-5 when he starts on Friday, 1-4 in his last five at home and 0-4 when he opens a series.

It’s all “unders” for the Cubs when Harden pitches, including 5-2 overall, 4-0 on the road, 5-1-1 as a road favorite and 4-1 when he gets four days of rest. As a team, the Cubs have topped the total in four of five against the N.L. East and four of five on the road, but they’ve stayed under the number in 10 of 13 as a road favorite and 31 of 48 on Fridays.

With Volstad pitching, the Marlins are on “under” runs of 7-3-2 in series openers, 9-3-1 as an underdog and 11-3-1 against winning teams. As a team, Florida has topped the total in five straight on Friday, eight of 12 against the N.L. Central and 11 of 18 at home against right-handers. In this series, the over is 9-3 in the last 12 in Florida and 4-1 in the last five overall.


ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE



AMERICAN LEAGUE


L.A. Angels (60-40) at Minnesota (52-50)


The Twins will try to make it five in a row when they send righty Nick Blackburn (8-5, 3.82 ERA) to the hill inside the Metrodome to welcome Angels’ right-hander Ervin Santana (3-6, 7.29) in the first game of this three-game set.

The Angels finished a seven-game homestand on Wednesday by beating the Indians 9-3. They went 5-2 in those seven, including 3-1 against these Twins in a four-game set last weekend. Los Angeles is on a plethora of positive runs, including 36-16 overall, 13-3 on the road, 13-3 in series openers, 9-2 as a ‘dog, 6-0 after an off-day and 6-2 on Fridays.

Minnesota swept the White Sox this week, winning all three games by two runs or less, including Wednesday’s 3-2 victory. The Twins are just 1-4 in their last five against A.L. West teams, but they are on streaks of 65-32 at home, 58-22 as home favorites, 24-7 on Fridays and 23-8 after an off-day.

Santana has won two of his last three starts, but his ERA is a whopping 6.11 in those three. He got blasted by these Twins on Sunday, allowing six runs on six hits in 3 2/3 innings of a 10-1 loss in the series finale in Anaheim. He’s allowed 11 runs in his last 9 2/3 innings and he’s yielded four runs or more in seven of his last 10 outings. Still, with Santana on the hill, the Angels are on runs of 10-2 in series openers, 4-1 when he’s a ‘dog, 5-2 on the road and 7-3 against the A.L. Central.

Blackburn is a perfect 5-0 at home with a 2.67 ERA, but he is just 1-1 with a 9.77 ERA in his last three outings overall. In Anaheim on Saturday, he allowed six runs on six hits in 3 2/3 innings of an 11-5 Twins’ loss. In two outings this season against Los Angeles, he’s given up 10 runs in 10 innings.

With Blackburn throwing, the Twins are 0-5 against the A.L. West and just 5-11 when he faces a team with a winning record, but they are on positive runs of 12-1 when he’s a home favorite, 17-4 when he’s at home and 5-1 when he pitches on Friday.

Los Angeles is on several “under” streaks with Santana on the hill, including 9-2 on the road, 5-1-1 on Fridays, 13-6-1 when he gets four days of rest, 8-3 in series openers and 8-3-2 against A.L. Central teams. Conversely, as a squad, the Angels are on a host of “over” runs that include 36-15-3 overall, 11-0 against the A.L. Central, 21-5-2 following a win and 23-6-1 against right-handed starters.

With Blackburn pitching, the Twins have stayed under the total in eight of his last 11, seven of 11 when he’s a home favorite and four of five at home. However, as a team, Minnesota is on “over” runs of 39-19-2 on Fridays, 5-1 against right-handers, 4-1 after an off-day, 5-2 in series openers and 5-0 against the A.L. West. Finally, the over was a perfect 4-0 when these two met in Anaheim last weekend.


ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty split with the Rockies (both) yesterday.

Today it's the Yankees. The surplus is 825 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

July 31, 2009

Hondo, who worked long into the night for his Cards victory Wednesday, gave it right back yesterday when the Royals were duked out in Baltimore to raise the IOUs to 410 mcauliffes.

Tonight, according to colleague Tim "Beating The Bushes" Bontemps, good times await anyone who backs Jackson -- 10 units on the Tigers.

 

[PokerFace]

Craig Trapp has just posted a guaranteed pick that you have a subscription to on sportsbetcapping.com.

The pick is:

Craig's 5 star R/L Grand Slam Play



The Bottom Line:
TB -1.5 (+103): TB is 6-0 this year verse KC winning by more than three runs per game. If that is not enough try KC has lost 13 of last 16 games. Even better Ponson is pitching for KC and he has lost 12 of his last 13 starts with a plus 6 ERA. He is 6-3 with a 4.46 ERA in his last 13 starts against the Rays. He was 0-1 with a 6.28 ERA in three starts versus Tampa Bay last season. On the hill for TB young superstar Price goes and even though he has struggled on the road that has not been problem at home going 3-1 with a 3.04 ERA in five home starts this year. KC just can't score runs consistently and TB can put up runs with the best of them.

 

[fly73]

John Morrison system plays

Official "A" bet on Stl

Non-official "A" bet on KC

 

[Yanks]

The Sports Investing Professional - Friday

Thursday Recap - A nice way to get back on track and once
again get a win when we stepped up to our 650 bet. It wasn't
easy but the Bo-Sox got it done.....

Todays Play(s) - There is really only one game to even consider
on todays MLB. These matchups are terrible so I look to the hottest
pitcher and that's the Cubs Rich Harden. He has been great his last
3 and great throughout his career at night so with all things considered the
price is real good.

MLB -Chicago Cubs -120[LISTED] Harden / Volstad....600.00/ 500.00


May The Ball Bounce Your Way,

The Sports Investing Professional


Record (23-11) + $3,924

 

[Yanks]

Dunkel

Today's MLB Picks

Detroit at Cleveland

The Indians look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is just 1-7 in its last 8 road games. Cleveland is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+140). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, JULY 31

Game 951-952: Washington at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 13.692; Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 14.783
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+125); Over
Game 953-954: Colorado at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 15.417; Cincinnati (Lehr) 12.576
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 3; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-145); Under
Game 955-956: Chicago Cubs at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Harden) 16.302; Florida (Volstad) 16.024
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-115); Under
Game 957-958: Arizona at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Davis) 15.312; NY Mets (Hernandez) 17.153
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-115); Over
Game 959-960: LA Dodgers at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Schmidt) 14.807; Atlanta (Hanson) 15.655
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-180); Under
Game 961-962: Houston at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Moehler) 15.274; St. Louis (Boggs) 14.886
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+145); Under
Game 963-964: Milwaukee at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Looper) 13.247; San Diego (Gaudin) 15.129
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+110); Over
Game 965-966: Philadelphia at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 16.594; San Francisco (Sadowski) 15.578
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-165); Under
Game 967-968: Boston at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Smoltz) 15.545; Baltimore (Guthrie) 15.202
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-125); Under
Game 969-970: Detroit at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Jackson) 15.300; Cleveland (Carmona) 15.819
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+140); Over
Game 971-972: Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Ponson) 14.076; Tampa Bay (Price) 15.290
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-200); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-200); Under
Game 973-974: Seattle at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Vargas) 14.877; Texas (Padilla) 14.623
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-165); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+155); Under
Game 975-976: LA Angels at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 16.045; Minnesota (Blackburn) 17.102
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-150); 10
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-150); Over
Game 977-978: NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Mitre) 16.188; White Sox (Richard) 15.562
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-120); Under
Game 979-980: Toronto at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Richmond) 14.930; Oakland (Braden) 15.192
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-135); Over



WNBA Basketball Picks

Minnesota at Detroit

The Shock look to build on their 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 games against the Western Conference. Detroit is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Shock favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-4). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, JULY 31

Game 651-652: Minnesota at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 107.091; Detroit 113.245
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 6; 156
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 4; 158
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-4); Under

 

[str8flush95]

********** - Fastball

Best Bets
STL over HOU
TB over KC

 

[SqueezetheJuice]

2009 Major League " Under" of the Year!!!!!
Washington/Pittsburgh under 8 1/2

Bases Best Bets
Arizona/NY Mets under 9
Boston/Baltimore over 10
LA Angels/Minnesota under 10
Toronto/Oakland under 8

Friday's free selection: Milwaukee/San Diego over 7 1/2

 

[cork999]

Chris Jordan
Friday night winner ...


400♦ TAMPA BAY RAYS RUN LINE (WITH Price over Ponson) - Though David Price received a no-decision in his last start, he will be looking to avenge the dismal start, against Toronto, which rocked him for six runs on nine hits over three innings. Difference is, the Jays can hit the ball; the Royals can’t. And since the 23-year-old's biggest issues revolve around inconsistency with his fastball, I believe he’ll make the right adjustment in a comfort zone at Tropicana Field, where he is 3-1 with a 2.96 ERA in six career appearances.

I know he often leaves his pitches in undesirable locations, which essentially weakens the effectiveness of his slider and changeup, but need I remind everyone he looked like the best pitcher on the field at times in the postseason last year? The left-hander is 1-2 with a 9.37 ERA in his last four outings, and this is the best opportunity to shake that funk and enjoy a successful outing.

The Royals, who are mired in ruts of 3-10 as an underdog and 14-37 on Friday nights, will be playing their fifth straight road game in as many days. Plus, they’re sending one of my favorite go-against pitchers to the hill … Sidney Ponson. Kansas City has lost 12 of the 13 appearances by Ponson, who is 1-6 with a 6.79 ERA.

Tampa Bay - which has won 22 of its last 29 meetings with the Royals, including all six meetings this season – is coming in steamed after losing two of three to the Yankees in what turned out to be an emotional series.

The Royals stumble into this one on a myriad of losing streaks, including 15-36 off a loss, 2-5 on the road, 1-8 against southpaws, 7-19 against winning teams and 6-22 after giving up five or more runs their last time out (they lost 7-3 in Baltimore yesterday). And when Ponson takes the mound, Kansas City is on losing streaks of 1-4 when he’s pitching on four days rest, 0-7 as an underdog and 1-7 overall.

With Tampa Bay, the winning runs include 7-3 versus the American League Central, 28-9 on Friday nights, 89-37 at the Trop and 4-1 when Price toes the home slab.

Lay the run line here, as Tampa Bay rolls to a blowout win over the road-weary Royals.




BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED BY MAFRA, IRONHORSE AND ME-----------------GL GUYS

 

[cork999]

Dominic Fazzini
Friday's play 15 Dime -- Cubs (Harden) over MARLINS (Volstad)

CUBS
NOTE: List only Harden as Chicago's starting pitcher

Cubs right-hander Rich Harden (7-6, 4.55 ERA) has turned his season around.

After struggling for much of the first half, Harden is 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA in his last three starts. He allowed one hit – a Joey Votto solo homer -- in six innings with eight strikeouts against Cincinnati on Sunday.

Harden will be opposed by Marlins right-hander Chris Volstad (8-9, 4.44), who has struggled at home this year. He is 2-6 with a 5.57 ERA in his last nine outings at Land Shark Stadium.

In his last start, Volstad allowed four runs and eight hits in 5 1/3 innings Sunday at Dodger Stadium. It was the third time in four outings that he has given up at least four runs.

The Cubs’ offense had trouble scoring runs much of the first half of the season, but that’s not the case anymore, as Chicago has scored in double figures four times in the last 11 games.

Harden has been solid on the road all season, going 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA in seven starts, and he has allowed just three runs over 20 innings in his last three outings away from Wrigley Field.

When Harden is on his game, he’s as good as any pitcher in baseball. Combine that with the way Chicago has been swinging the bats lately, and there’s only one way to go on this one. Take the Cubs.



BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED BY MARFA,IRONHORSE AND ME----------------GL GUYS

 

[cork999]

Scott Delaney
Friday ... 10-Dime Blue Jays (WITH Richmond and Braden) - Analysis due back by 4 p.m. eastern

10-Dime Padres -

10-Dime Phillies -1' Runs (WITH Blanton over Sadowski) -



GOOD LUCK GUYS---------CORK

 

[Yanks]

Fantasy Sports Gametime 7 /31


MLB Baseball

100* Play Detroit (-135) over Cleveland (MLB TOP PLAY)

Cleveland has lost 8 of the last 9 games coming off four or more consecutive OVER the totals and they have also lost 9 of the last 10 games after allowing seven or more runs in two straight games. Cleveland has lost 17 of the last 26 games as an underdog of +125 to +175 and they have also lost 3 consecutive games vs. Detroit at home. Fausto Carmona has lost 4 of the last 5 home games and he is 0-2 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 19.65.



100* Play St. Louis (-165) over Houston (MLB TOP PLAY)

Houston has lost 4 of the last 5 games and they have also lost 9 of the last 12 games when playing with a day off. Houston has lost 3 consecutive games vs. St. Louis on the road and Brian Moehler has an ERA of 5.16 in all games this season. St. Louis has won 13 of the last 17 games as a favorite of -150 or higher and Mitchell Boggs has won 8 of his last 10 games.



100* Play Texas (-160) over Seattle (MLB TOP PLAY)

Texas has won 8 of the last 10 games and they have also won 17 of the last 23 home games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs. Texas has won 18 of the last 26 games vs. division opponents and they have also won 16 of the last 22 home games vs. left-handed starting pitchers. Vicente Padilla has won 12 of the last 16 games vs. division opponents and he has also won 5 of the last 6 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs.


50* Play Colorado (-135) over Cincinnati (MLB BONUS PLAY)

Cincinnati has lost 9 of the last 10 games and they have also lost 5 of the last 6 games vs. Colorado at home. Cincinnati has lost 17 of the last 26 games as an underdog of +125 to +175 and they have also lost 20 of the last 30 games when batting .240 or worse over the last 15 games. Aaron Cook has won 5 consecutive games as a road favorite of -125 or higher and he is also 2-0 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 3.26.



CFL Football

50* Play British Columbia (-2) over Hamilton (CFL FOOTBALL PLAY)

British Columbia has won 21 of the last 27 games vs. Hamilton and they have also won 4 of the last 5 road games when the total posted is between 49.5 and 52 points. British Columbia has won 13 of the last 17 non-conference games and they have also won 17 of the last 22 games coming off an UNDER the total.



WNBA BASKETBALL


50* Play Minnesota (+4) over Detroit (WNBA HOOPS PLAY)

Minnesota has covered the spread in 4 consecutive games vs. Detroit and they have also covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 games as an underdog of 6 points or less. Minnesota has covered the spread in 8 of the last 9 non-conference games and they have also covered the spread in 10 of the last 12 games coming off a home loss.